The past 3 months have been torture for the QQQ, the ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100. The large cap stocks that dominate the QQQ performance have been breaking down one after another and that has weighed much more heavily on the NASDAQ 100 than it has on the S&P 500 as the latter is much more diversified over 500 large, multinational companies. The breakdowns of Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Tesla (TSLA) have really taken a toll, while weakness in other key stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) have added to the weakness in the QQQ.
The current H&S pattern in the QQQ is a bearish continuation pattern, but in the short-term, today’s bounce off major neckline support could help to propel the QQQ higher and into a possible right shoulder top over the next week or two. Check this out:
The H&S pattern is not confirmed until the neckline is broken. So it’s quite possible that we simply rally off today’s neckline support test. The alternative, a breakdown below the neckline – especially if accompanied by heavy volume – would be quite bearish and certainly increase the odds of much further weakness ahead.
Tomorrow morning, Saturday, January 7th, we’ll be hosting our 4th annual MarketVision event. This year’s version will feature me, along with David Keller, Julius de Kempenaer, and Grayson Roze from StockCharts.com. We’ll be providing our 2023 outlooks and forecasts. This is a FREE virtual event that will begin at 9am ET. While there is no credit card required, you will need to CLICK HERE to register with your name and email address. I look forward to seeing everyone there!
Tom Bowley is the Chief Market Strategist of EarningsBeats.com, a company providing a research and educational platform for both investment professionals and individual investors. Tom writes a comprehensive Daily Market Report (DMR), providing guidance to EB.com members every day that the stock market is open. Tom has contributed technical expertise here at StockCharts.com since 2006 and has a fundamental background in public accounting as well, blending a unique skill set to approach the U.S. stock market.