Last week I featured the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) with a clear resistance level to beat. Even though the 2022 decline could be a correction after a big advance, the ETF is short of a breakout and trend reversal. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also has a clear level to beat and is challenging resistance.
The chart below shows QQQ surging some 140% and then retracing around 61.8% of this advance. This is basically two big steps forward and one step backward. This step backward, however, has yet to reverse and the long-term trend remains down.
QQQ found support twice in the 258 area in early November and late December (green lines). These two equal lows form a potential double bottom and a break above the intermittent high would confirm the pattern. QQQ is challenging the December high as I write and a breakout at 300 would confirm the double bottom.
The indicator window shows the Trend Composite turning negative in late January and remaining negative, which means the downtrend is in force. In addition to a confirmed double bottom, I would like to see the Trend Composite turn positive before turning bullish on QQQ. The Trend Composite aggregates signals in five trend-following indicators and it is at -5 right now, which means all five have bearish signals.
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Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
