We’ve noticed that depending on what index you’re in, price is holding up or not. The SP500 (SPY) (pink solid line) tested February highs, but the SP600 has been angling lower. Today we saw disparity again as the SPY was up slightly while SP600 (IJR) was down on the day.
For IJR, overhead resistance is strong at the 50-day EMA, the declining trend out of the February high has not been overcome as it was for the SPY coming out of March lows. IJR’s PMO saw a top beneath the signal line earlier and while it is currently rising, another decline will likely have it top beneath the signal line. The Silver Cross Index has topped twice beneath its signal line and the Golden Cross continues to deteriorate. Participation is high enough to turn the Silver Cross Index up, but it has been unable to reverse suggesting internal weakness.
Conclusion: Without broad market participation, we should expect most indexes to succumb to gravity.
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Erin Swenlin is a co-founder of the DecisionPoint.com website along with her father, Carl Swenlin. She launched the DecisionPoint daily blog in 2009 alongside Carl and now serves as a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor at StockCharts.com. Erin is an active Member of the CMT Association. She holds a Master’s degree in Information Resource Management from the Air Force Institute of Technology as well as a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Southern California.